When civil war erupted in Sudan back in April 2023, the United Nations issued a dire warning. They feared that the conflict could spill over Sudan’s borders, engulfing neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan. The situation has only escalated since then, with recent threats from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) directed at Chad, sparking concerns of a potential conflict between these two nations.
“Chad’s airports in Amdjarass and N’Djamena were legitimate targets for Sudan’s army.”
The Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the SAF, Yasir al-Atta, openly declared Chad as a target for military action. This aggressive stance comes amidst allegations of Chad’s support for rival forces against Sudan. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), backed by external powers including Chad and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have further complicated the already tense situation.
“Chad’s Foreign Affairs Ministry declared its readiness to retaliate.”
In response to these provocations, Chad’s government has not minced words about their preparedness to defend themselves. This saber-rattling rhetoric has been echoed by prominent Chadian figures, signaling a dangerous stand-off between the two nations. The General Staff of the Chadian Armies even went as far as considering Sudan’s remarks as a ‘declaration of war.’
With both countries sharing a 1,360 km border and deeply intertwined cultural and ethnic connections, any escalation in hostilities could have severe repercussions beyond their borders. Despite historical tensions and proxy wars between them, such direct confrontation would be unprecedented and present significant risks for both sides.
As expert analysts point out,
“Sudan is overstretched with its army battling various armed groups across different fronts.”
The SAF may appear emboldened by recent victories but lacks the capacity to engage in a full-blown regional conflict without risking internal stability. Similarly, Chad faces security challenges on multiple fronts despite having a smaller military force compared to Sudan.
Continuing down this path could lead to scenarios ranging from open armed conflict to proxy wars through rebel groups operating within each other’s territories. Such conflicts have historically undermined security and stability in both nations, leaving civilians vulnerable to displacement and worsening living conditions.
“De-escalation through diplomatic efforts is crucial for preventing further violence.”
While outright war seems unlikely given current circumstances, diplomatic intervention is vital to prevent any escalation into broader hostilities. The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council has a pivotal role in mediating between Sudan and Chad. By facilitating dialogue and addressing underlying issues such as migration challenges and organized crime along their shared border areas, a peaceful resolution can be sought.
Experts emphasize that prioritizing de-escalation measures will not only benefit Sudan and Chad but also contribute to stabilizing the entire sub-region. Through sustained diplomatic engagement supported by international bodies like the AU, there remains hope for averting a potentially catastrophic outcome of this brewing crisis.
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