How real is the risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan? Well, imagine a nightmare scenario where a terrorist attack triggers a nuclear exchange. This was the premise of a study by global scientists that highlighted the fragility of peace in the region. The recent stand-off between India and Pakistan, although defused by international intervention, reignited fears of full-blown conflict.
The crisis showcased how quickly tensions can escalate in this volatile region. As Pakistan retaliated militarily, it sent a strong signal by convening its National Command Authority (NCA) meeting – underscoring its nuclear capabilities. This move raised questions about the true intentions behind such strategic posturing.
Meanwhile, US intervention played a crucial role in preventing what President Trump described as averting a
“nuclear conflict.”
Both countries possess significant nuclear arsenals, with approximately 170 weapons each according to experts. The deployment of these weapons adds an ominous layer to any confrontation between the two nations.
One key difference lies in their naval capabilities – where India appears to have an edge due to substantial investments in building a formidable naval nuclear force. Additionally, while India publicly adopted a no-first-use policy initially, there have been indications of potential shifts towards more nuanced doctrines allowing for pre-emptive strikes under specific circumstances.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains somewhat ambiguous but offers glimpses into its red lines for potential use. These red lines include scenarios like major territorial loss or threats to its existence as a nation, indicating the seriousness with which it views its nuclear deterrent.
Despite close calls in the past and increasing arsenals on both sides, neither country wants to be seen as initiating nuclear conflict due to severe potential consequences. The presence of these weapons injects an ever-present element of risk into any confrontation – a risk that even seasoned leaders find challenging to mitigate completely.
In assessing the danger posed by accidental escalation towards nuclear war, experts point out various vulnerabilities such as human error or technological failures that could trigger unintended consequences. Incidents like India’s accidental missile launch into Pakistani territory underscore how easily situations can escalate without proper communication channels or safeguards in place.
While both countries have managed to navigate previous crises without tipping over into full-scale conflict, the specter of nuclear war looms large over any future confrontations. The delicate balance between deterrence strategies and escalating tensions underscores the need for constant vigilance and diplomatic efforts to prevent catastrophic outcomes.
Sumit Ganguly from Stanford University aptly summarizes this precarious situation stating that neither side wants to break the post-Hiroshima taboo on using nuclear weapons due to anticipated retaliation and intolerable casualties.
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